A Housing Conundrum

Paul Kasriel, in today's Daily Global Commentary (pdf), looks at the new home sales data and scratches his head:

The Housing Market Environment – Government Stats vs. Company Stats
It was reported yesterday by the Census Bureau that new single-family-home sales rose 13.8% in March. Hmm. All this talk about the housing sector weakening must be just that – talk. But wait a minute. Yesterday afternoon and this morning some large national homebuilding corporations announced their first quarter results. Both Centex and Pulte said their year-overyear new order fell 11%. Centex cut its forecast and Pulte’s forecast is below that of the consensus. Beazer reported orders down 19% overall, with a decline of 46% in the West. Government statistics are more likely to be revised than are these results from homebuilders. Believe what you want, folks, but the shaky foundation of the housing industry is showing severe cracks. And, as goes housing, so goes the U.S. economy.