FOMC Statement, May 10 2006

Very hawkish in tone again, even though they aren't saying anything they haven't said repeatedly in speeches since the last meeting. The key statement change is "further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks." Expect a lot more Fed speeches that emphasize inflation risks and energy price pass-through. Nevertheless, unless we see significant increases in unit labor costs, or increased pass-through of energy costs into core inflation, I think the Fed will pause at the next meeting.

Fed funds futures dropped on the news (higher rate expectations), and are now factoring in a rate of 5.25% by the end of the year.

Here's the statement with changes from the Mar 28th Statement:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-3/4 5 percent.

The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. Economic growth has been quite strong so far this year. The Committee sees growth as likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to keep the address inflation risks to the attainment of both sustainable but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.outlook as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these support the attainment of its objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 5-3/46 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.